The IMF adjusted its April growth forecast for Hungarian GDP in the recently published World Economic Outlook (WEO). Also published long-term forecasts for 2023.
The Hungarian economy this year could grow by 4%, and GDP growth in 2019, according to IMF economists, could reach 3.3%. Thus, the Monetary Fund believes that the current dynamic growth of the Hungarian economy will slow down a bit.
Most of the Hungarian bankers and economists are not as pessimistic as the IMF, since they believe that GDP growth this year will exceed 4%, but agree that growth will slow in 2019.
According to the IMF, a significant slowdown in GDP growth is expected in the long term, and the Hungarian GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2023. This means that the Monetary Fund continues to count with low potential growth of Hungarian GDP.
In comparison: GDP will grow in Croatia by 2.1%, Poland by 2.8%, Romania by 3.1% in 2023. The IMF expects that in the European region, which develops, GDP will grow by 2.7%, which is 0 , 5% higher than in Hungary.
Inflation this year could reach 2.8% and in the next year grow to 3.3%. The long-term inflation rate is in line with the forecasts of the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) and amounts to the same 3%.
The balance of payments, according to the IMF, in 2019 will be in excess, and even in 2023, the surplus will be expected to be 1% of GDP, that is, the balance sheet indicators of the country will be favorable.
As a result, Hungary’s long-term GDP growth will be more moderate from the current (4%), but the surplus of payments will also become more acceptable.